Analyst Bets Gas Cars Worth Less Than Zero
A cleantech analyst predicts ordinary gasoline cars in the US will be worth less than the cost of their fuel and maintenance by 2031, citing Norway's
A cleantech analyst is making a five-year bet that by 2031, ordinary gasoline and diesel cars in the United States will be worth less than the fuel, maintenance, and repairs required to keep them running. This prediction, made by the author of a CleanTechnica report, hinges on the proliferation of cheap used electric vehicles. While such cars would retain scrap or sentimental value, the analyst argues they will lose all value as functional transportation.
The case is built on observable trends in Norway and China, treated as leading indicators for the larger US market.
Norway's New-Car Preview
Norway has effectively reached the end of the new-car transition for combustion engines. Battery-electric vehicles took 95.9% of new passenger-car sales in 2025. By July 2026, that share had reached 97.6%. CleanTechnica's Maximilian Holland stated plainly that Norway has finished with new internal combustion engine cars.
However, the fleet changes more slowly. By mid-2026, BEVs were only about 34.6% of Norway's total passenger fleet. More than 60% of cars on the road still burn fuel. The analyst cautions that confusing new-car showrooms with used-car lots is a mistake. The real pressure on residual value comes from a thinning support system, like Circle K reducing fuel pumps and adding chargers at a site near Oslo.
China's Used-Market Reality
China, the world's largest car market, shows what happens next. New Energy Vehicle share hit about 65% of new passenger car retail in July 2026. The used market tells a more dramatic story.
From January to April 2026, used NEV transactions surged 29% year-over-year to 547,900, with resale values up about 30%. Meanwhile, used gasoline cars became what dealers called "unsellable." One dealer described nearly a 10% value drop per month, eating a loss of about 30,000 RMB (roughly $4,400). Three-year residual values for ICE cars in China have tracked down to about 46%.
The analyst sees a critical signal in the gap between new and used EV penetration. NEVs represented around 63% of new sales but only 8.57% of the used market. As three- and five-year-old EVs flood used lots, the leftover ICE vehicles will become harder to move. The destination, according to the bet, is a $50,000 gasoline car becoming a $5,000 problem.
The Total Cost Ownership Math
The core of the argument is simple math for a "Regular Joe" driver. The analyst uses figures of 12,000 annual miles, $4 per gallon gasoline, and 20 cents per kilowatt-hour electricity.
| Vehicle Type | MPG / Efficiency | Annual Fuel Cost | Estimated Monthly Maintenance | Total Monthly Running Cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 mpg Gas Car | 25 mpg | $1,920 | $100 | ~$260 |
| 18 mpg Truck | 18 mpg | $2,667 | $100 | ~$322 |
| Home-Charged EV | 4 mi/kWh | $600 | $50 | ~$100 |
| Efficient Hybrid | ~60 mpg | ~$800 | Not specified | Lower than regular ICE |
The analyst estimates a five-plus-year-old US ICE vehicle costs about $200 monthly in fuel and $100 in repairs and maintenance. A comparable EV would cost about $50 for electricity and $50 for maintenance if charged at home. University of Michigan research already finds used BEVs have the lowest total cost of ownership in the US.
Faced with a paid-off gas car costing $300 a month to run versus a $10,000 used EV with a $200 loan payment and $100 in running costs, the rational choice becomes clear. The free gasoline car, in this context, is worth less than zero.
Potential Delays and Counterarguments
The collapse could be delayed by exporting unwanted gasoline cars to other regions. China is already sending unsellable domestic inventory to Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East. However, the analyst states this export valve postpones but does not cancel the residual value collapse if those markets eventually do the same math.
Several factors could make the analyst wrong or early. The US market is fundamentally different. NADA's July 2026 figures show battery-electric share at just 5.9% of new vehicles year-to-date, while hybrids are at 15.4% and growing. For a driver comparing an $800 annual hybrid fuel bill to a $600 EV charging cost, the hybrid may win. America is also a truck country, and a used Nissan LEAF priced between $15,000 and $20,000 cannot replace a work or tow truck. Without cheap used electric trucks, ICE truck residuals may hold firm even as sedans struggle. The analyst concedes they might be a decade early in the US, not five years. The average US vehicle age was 12.8 years in 2025, indicating a slow fleet turnover that could buffer the predicted shift.
